A master of any martial art does not conquer his opponent; he lets his opponent beat himself. The opponent loses the battle because the smart fighter knows how to turn the other man's strengths into weaknesses. The master wins not because he is physically stronger, but because he is mentally a step ahead of his adversary. The master is an invisible catalyst—the opponent never sees his downfall coming. His own strength and momentum hurl him to the ground even while he's watching out for the master's attack.
Playing blackjack for profit isn't all that different. Your opponent, the casino, has vast strength in the form of an incredibly large bankroll. Furthermore, the house sets all the rules and may eliminate any opponent it considers a worthy challenger. This is a tough setup—not only do you have to play very well in order to win, but if you look like you play well, you may not be allowed to play at all.
The major weakness of the casinos, however, is that their advantage over the player is volatile. Sometimes they have a large advantage, but occasionally they're vulnerable to the knowledgeable player.
In the same way that a martial arts master does not depend on his muscles to win a fight, a master of blackjack does not depend on some incredibly difficult, advanced, multi-parameter counting system to win money at the tables. Nor does he depend on the superior strength of his bankroll; he knows that his bankroll is inferior to his opponent's. Rather, he allows the volatility of the game to put money into his pockets at its own rate. He remains invisible as a counter because he does not exploit his own strengths as much as he exploits the casino's weaknesses.
Single-deck games are volatile, and the change in advantage is fast and great. Multi-deck games are less volatile—the change in the advantage is slow. The master counter employs different strategies for each game, designed to disguise his counting strategy, while at the same time maximizing his win rate. These are some of his strategies:
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Tags: Look at the first chart, titled "Half-Kelly 10K Starting Bank-Downswing." This chart shows your ideal bets when you want to play at the half-Kelly level of risk, starting with a $10,000 bankroll, betting one, two, or three simultaneous hands. This chart shows what happens to your ideal bets when your bankroll is diminishing, as your bets go down as your bankroll decreases from $10,000 to $9,000 to $8,000 and so on. All bets are rounded to the nearest $10 increment, though this is not necessarily the most practical bet when playing blackjack. If the chart shows that your ideal bet is $70 or $80, you might want to just bet three green chips ($75) for convenience. This will not have any drastic effect on your overall fluctuation or results.
Example: If my $10K starting bank has gone down to $8K due to negative flux, and my true edge tells me that I have a 2 1/2% advantage after deducting the house edge off the top, then according to the chart I would ideally place one hand of $80, two $60 hands, or three $40 hands. If you can spot these entries in the chart, then that's all there is to it. You may find that in some instances the "ideal" bets for two or three hands are the same, which is a result of rounding to the nearest $10. In fact, the ideal two-hand bet will be somewhat greater than the three-hand bet. But don't worry about over-betting—because we are betting only at the half-Kelly level, betting slightly more than the ideal amount isn't at all significant. We have already largely decreased our flux by not betting anywhere near full-Kelly.
The second chart shows how your bets increase when your $10K starting bank is on the upswing. If you cut all chart entries in half, note also how impractical it is for a player on a $10K bank to minimize his risk by betting at the quarter-Kelly level, especially if his starting bank goes into a downswing. The bet sizes are so small that it is difficult to get a substantial enough win rate per hour to make your playing worth the effort.
At half-Kelly with this $10K bankroll, the player will assume more risk, and greater fluctuations, but his hourly rate may be high enough to justify his time and effort at the tables.
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