Posts Tagged ‘card counters’
One of my favorite methods of depth-charging in Reno and Tahoe used to be to Wong it in crowded single-deck games, that is, table-hop and play only when the count is favorable. This is a depth-charging strategy that can be employed by card counters using any valid counting system, though this strategy is primarily for small stakes players.
In the big casinos, I had no trouble getting away with this strategy making single quarter ($25) bets. I've also done it with no heat betting single $20 bills. This style of play also works best when there are other big bettors at the table. If you bet a single quarter on a table where other players are betting multiple greens and blacks, no dealer will shuffle on you, nor will you get a second glance from the pit. If you jump around betting quarters where everyone else is betting nickels (or silver!), you are more likely to raise suspicion. Do not expect to get away with this strategy with black ($100) chips or stacks of quarters anywhere.
Playing a single hand, I was able to get an average of 38 hands every hour, table-hopping crowded single-deck games, and my average edge was about 3%. I also tried playing as many as three hands depending on how many spots I could grab, according to the number of players at the table and their positions. In sum, I got about 70 hands per hour, with an estimated edge of about 2%. I played at tables where at least three other players were playing, and usually there were four or five.
One problem I encountered was not always knowing how deeply into the deck the dealer had gone. Some of my bets were met with a shuffle-up, not because the dealer was paranoid about counters, but rather out of necessity. In such cases, I played through the hands and doubled my bet size or walked on the next round, depending on the count. I did not sit down to play, but stood behind the vacant seat. I never felt any heat.
Using the Red Seven Count, you should be able to get about 25 to 30 hands per hour, at an average edge of about 3%, by betting only at a running count of +3 or higher. Betting quarters, this means a potential gain of $20 per hour. It may seem like a slow grind, but for players on limited funds there is wisdom to playing hands only when you enjoy such a large edge. Your negative fluctuations will be considerably reduced, and playing 25 hands per hour with a 3% edge will win at the same rate as 75 hands per hour with a 1% edge.
After 100 hours of play with $25 bets, each approach would potentially net a win of $1,875. The player with the 3% edge, however, will have put one-third as much money into action as the 1 % edge player, who is playing three times faster. The faster player with the smaller edge would need a bankroll almost twice as large as the slow player to cope with his larger fluctuation.
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Tags: blackjack, card counters, online casino
Tags: Playing multiple hands simultaneously when you have the advantage can also cut fluctuations in the long run. Your overall fluctuations go down when you place twice as many bets with smaller amounts on each hand. Some pros, as a rule, always play two hands when they have the edge, and only one hand when they don't. As your expectation rises, multiple simultaneous hands are also often a good idea because they will camouflage your spread, and let you get more money into action when you have the edge.
There are also many other reasons why pros may occasionally want to play multiple hands. If the casino you are playing in is infested with table-hopping card counters, increasing to multiple-hand play at positive counts keeps these players off your table. Likewise, if you're "shuffle tracking" (an advanced technique covered in a later chapter), multiple-hand play works to get the greatest proportion of high cards in a "slug" delivered to you.
But playing two simultaneous hands will increase the fluctuation of your bankroll if you place the same big bet on both hands based on your true edge. To decrease this fluctuation, you must cut back on the size of your multiple high bets. If you play two hands, both hands together should be about 1 1/2 times the standard high bet you'd place if you were playing only one hand.
Example: if your standard high bet is $100, then play two hands of $75 each. Do not play more than two simultaneous hands unless you believe it is the last round of the shoe, and you also believe the advantage is high enough to justify the extra bets. With three simultaneous hands, do not bet more than 60% of your single-hand high bet on each hand.
Also note that even with only one hand on the table, when you have a full 1.0% advantage, your "ideal" full-Kelly bet is only 0.75% of your bank, not a full 1.0%. This is to compensate for the double/split options at blackjack, which increase fluctuations.
The two charts on the following pages present your ideal half-Kelly bets when you are playing one, two, or three hands. I suggest that before you begin play in a casino, you draw up a betting chart that shows "correct" bets for your actual bankroll. I've used a "generic" $10,000 bankroll for these charts, so if you have a $30,000 bankroll, you can just multiply these bets by three. It should not be difficult to figure out your ideal half-Kelly bets with any size bank, using these charts as a guide. Obviously, if you have the bankroll to play a less risky quarter-Kelly betting strategy, then you can just cut all of the bets in the charts in half.
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Tags: blackjack, card counters, online casino